Alphixir Monthly · Aug 1–31, 2026

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01At a Glance

Meridian

Us-1.21%

SPY+2.91%

α-4.13%

Hit rate 50%

Maverick

Us+0.31%

SPY+2.91%

α-2.60%

Hit rate 50%

Sentinel

Us+0.86%

SPY+2.91%

α-2.05%

Hit rate 47%

🏆

Regent

Us+1.11%

SPY+2.91%

α-1.80%

Hit rate 46%

RegimeRisk On 36→Risk On 33

02The Month's Narrative

WhatAugust 2026 was a full month that never left the Risk-On regime, yet the regime score whipsawed hard beneath a calm surface. Readings swung from a low of 20.5 on 2026-08-19 to a high of 52.8 on 2026-08-10, closing the month at 33.0 — still Risk-On but visibly cooling into the final stretch. SPY compounded a solid +2.91% over the 20 trading days, carried largely by semiconductors and energy. NVDA was the single most decisive name of the month, finishing as our top contributor across multiple strategies. On the other side, LLY dragged as our top detractor, and pockets of defense and industrials (RTX, NOC) and steel (NUE) leaked value. The dispersion between winners and losers was wide, which meant selection mattered far more than simply being long the tape.

WhyThe catalyst mix rewarded cyclical growth and energy while punishing rate-sensitive defensives and select healthcare. Semiconductors led on continued AI-capex momentum, lifting NVDA, LRCX, and MU into positive territory. Energy names (COP, CVX, XOM, PSX) rode firm crude and refining margins, delivering several of the month's cleanest gains. Meanwhile LLY sold off on healthcare-specific pressure, becoming the common drag across Meridian and Maverick. Defense and industrials (RTX, NOC) and steel (NUE) faded as the risk backdrop stayed constructive and rotation favored higher-beta growth over ballast. The mid-month regime dip to 20.5 briefly rattled positioning, but the score's quick rebound to 47.8 by 2026-08-20 showed the market was churning, not breaking. In short, the tape trended up while leadership narrowed to chips and energy.

So WhatAll four strategies underperformed SPY's +2.91% this month — an honest miss we own rather than dress up. Meridian was the laggard at TWR -1.21% (alpha -4.13%), hurt by concentrated conviction in LLY, NFLX, and LRCX that cut the wrong way even as NVDA and FCX worked. Maverick edged positive at +0.31% but still trailed by -2.60%, as an oversized NUE and LLY offset strong NVDA, COP, and LRCX calls. Sentinel (+0.86%) and Regent (+1.11%) protected capital best, with the shallowest drawdowns (-1.34% and -1.23%), leaning on energy winners while their defense and industrial sleeves bled. Hit-rates clustered near coin-flip (46–50%), confirming that a handful of large positions — not breadth — drove outcomes. Across the book we logged 687 buys/adds against 780 sells/trims and 12 sector shifts, a net-trimming posture into a cooling regime. The lesson of the month: leadership was real but narrow, and our sizing on defensives and LLY was too generous for a Risk-On tape that kept rewarding growth and energy.

03Regime Journey

04Persona League Table

#PersonaTWRαMDDHit

1Regent🏆+1.11%-1.80%-1.23%46%

2Sentinel+0.86%-2.05%-1.34%47%

3Maverick+0.31%-2.60%-2.96%50%

4Meridian-1.21%-4.13%-3.33%50%

05Best & Worst CallsBy persona · worst shown at the same size as best — no cherry-picking

MeridianCore

Best calls

NVDANVIDIA Corp.8.67%+7.29%

At 8.7% weight NVDA returned +7.29%, making it Meridian's cleanest contributor and echoing the month's chip leadership.

LessonWhen AI-capex momentum is intact, sizing up the clearest leader pays.

FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.8.24%+6.77%

FCX added +6.77% on an 8.2% weight, a well-timed cyclical tilt into a firm Risk-On backdrop.

LessonCyclical materials can reward when the regime stays constructive.

ABBVAbbVie Inc.6.41%+3.47%

ABBV returned +3.47% at 6.4% weight, a rare healthcare gain in a month that punished the sector.

LessonEven in a weak sector, name-level selection can separate winners from losers.

Worst calls

LLYEli Lilly and Co.7.64%-4.49%

LLY fell -4.49% on a 7.6% weight and was the book's top detractor, a conviction call that cut hard against us.

LessonConcentrated healthcare conviction needs tighter risk limits when the sector is under pressure.

NFLXNetflix Inc.10.45%-2.74%

Our largest single weight at 10.4%, NFLX slipped -2.74% and amplified the drag through sheer size.

LessonOversized positions magnify even modest losses — cap conviction weights.

LRCXLam Research Corp.7.97%-3.13%

LRCX cost -3.13% at 8.0% weight here, an ill-timed entry despite semis leading elsewhere.

LessonRight sector, wrong timing still loses — entry matters as much as thesis.

MaverickAggressive

Best calls

NVDANVIDIA Corp.10.63%+7.29%

Maverick's top-weight NVDA at 10.6% returned +7.29%, capturing the month's dominant theme with size.

LessonHigh-conviction sizing on the clearest leader is where aggressive posture earns its keep.

COPConocoPhillips10.91%+5.31%

COP added +5.31% on a 10.9% weight, a large energy bet that rode firm crude.

LessonEnergy conviction paid when the commodity backdrop cooperated.

LRCXLam Research Corp.8.99%+6.87%

LRCX returned +6.87% at 9.0% weight for Maverick — the same name that hurt Meridian, a reminder timing differs by book.

LessonIdentical tickers can produce opposite results depending on entry and sizing.

Worst calls

LLYEli Lilly and Co.11.11%-4.36%

LLY dropped -4.36% on an 11.1% weight, an oversized healthcare bet that dragged the book.

LessonDouble-digit weight on a struggling name is too much risk for one thesis.

NUENucor Corp.12.07%-2.77%

Maverick's heaviest weight at 12.1%, NUE fell -2.77% as steel lagged the cyclical rally.

LessonNot all cyclicals rotate together — steel underperformed while energy and chips led.

MUMicron Technology Inc.8.16%+3.72%

MU actually gained +3.72% at 8.2% weight but is flagged as a relative laggard within a strong semis month.

LessonA positive return can still underdeliver when peers run harder.

SentinelConservative

Best calls

XOMExxon Mobil Corp.3.43%+5.39%

XOM returned +5.39% at 3.4% weight, a measured energy tilt that anchored Sentinel's gains.

LessonDisciplined energy exposure delivered without stretching position size.

PSXPhillips 662.72%+8.04%

PSX added +8.04% on a 2.7% weight, benefiting from firm refining margins.

LessonRefiners can outrun integrated majors when crack spreads widen.

NOWServiceNow Inc.1.34%+9.41%

NOW gained +9.41% on a small 1.3% weight, a high-quality growth name that worked even in a defensive book.

LessonSmall, high-quality growth sleeves can add upside without breaking a conservative frame.

Worst calls

NUENucor Corp.1.64%-9.94%

NUE fell -9.94% on a 1.6% weight, the sharpest single drop but well-contained by small sizing.

LessonSmall weights turned a brutal move into a survivable one.

RTXRTX Corp.2.73%-5.36%

RTX lost -5.36% at 2.7% weight as defense faded under a Risk-On tape.

LessonDefense ballast can underperform when the regime rewards higher beta.

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp.2.10%-6.51%

NOC dropped -6.51% on a 2.1% weight, compounding the defense-sector drag.

LessonConcentrated defense exposure hurt when rotation favored growth.

RegentSector Champ

Best calls

COPConocoPhillips2.38%+8.40%

COP returned +8.40% at 2.4% weight, Regent's standout energy pick of the month.

LessonLeaning into the leading sector's strongest name paid off.

CVXChevron Corp.2.54%+6.68%

CVX added +6.68% on a 2.5% weight, reinforcing the energy overweight.

LessonDiversifying within a winning sector captured broad-based strength.

NVDANVIDIA Corp.2.53%+1.48%

NVDA gained +1.48% at 2.5% weight — positive, though modest relative to its run elsewhere.

LessonA smaller weight captured direction but left upside on the table.

Worst calls

RTXRTX Corp.4.84%-6.90%

RTX fell -6.90% on a 4.8% weight, Regent's heaviest detractor as defense lagged.

LessonAn oversized defense bet ran counter to a Risk-On month.

HDThe Home Depot Inc.2.65%-6.54%

HD dropped -6.54% at 2.6% weight as consumer-discretionary retail softened.

LessonRetail exposure faded even as the broad tape climbed.

AMZNAmazon.com Inc.2.54%-6.59%

AMZN lost -6.59% on a 2.5% weight, a mega-cap miss in an otherwise growth-friendly month.

LessonEven index leaders can decouple — name selection beats sector labels.

06Stats Corner

Total picks

1000

Buys

687

Sells

780

Sector shifts

Top contributor

NVDA

Top detractor

LLY

07What the AI Learned

Meridian

“We over-concentrated in conviction names that fought the tape — LLY and NFLX were our two biggest weights on the wrong side, and NFLX's 10.4% size magnified a modest loss into real drag. The pattern we keep repeating is trusting a thesis enough to oversize it before the price confirms it. We're tightening single-name weight caps and demanding entry-timing evidence before scaling conviction.”

Maverick

“Our best ideas worked — NVDA, COP, LRCX all delivered — but oversized bets on NUE (12.1%) and LLY (11.1%) that lagged offset the gains. The recurring flaw is treating every high-conviction name as a maximum-weight name, so laggards hurt as much as winners help. We're capping the tail so aggressive doesn't mean undiversified.”

Sentinel

“Position sizing was our saving grace: NUE fell nearly ten percent but at 1.6% weight it barely dented us, while energy and a small NOW sleeve carried the month. Our miss was over-allocating to defense (RTX, NOC) into a persistent Risk-On regime. We're keeping the discipline on sizing and trimming ballast that no longer fits the regime.”

Regent

“Energy leadership rewarded us via COP and CVX, but an oversized RTX at 4.8% and mega-cap misses in HD and AMZN dragged the sleeve. The pattern is anchoring to sector labels when name-level dispersion is what actually decided returns. We're weighting toward the specific leaders within a sector rather than assuming the whole group moves together.”

08Watch NextEvents and themes only — no new picks or weight changes are ever previewed here

Themes to watch

Sector concentration to watch: Technology continues to carry the largest combined weight across the four books.

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Virtual investment simulation — informational and entertainment purposes only, not investment advice. All decisions were sealed and timestamped before the U.S. market open; percentages and derived scores only, no price data is republished.